:Product: 20040510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  A disappearing solar
filament was observed on 10 May at approximately 0350 UTC from the
area of Region 606 (S09E40).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet through 12 May, then increase slightly to
unsettled levels on 13 May with the possible effects of the
disappearing solar filament of 10 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 093
Predicted   11 May-13 May  095/090/090
90 Day Mean        10 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  005/010-005/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/35
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10