:Product: 20040511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through 12 May.  Late on 13 May, the
influence of both a high-speed stream from a coronal hole, and a
glancing blow from a disappearing solar filament are likely to cause
periods of unsettled to active levels.  This should continue through
14 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 090
Predicted   12 May-14 May  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        11 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  005/010-010/010-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10