:Product: 20040512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been mostly very low to low.  Region
609 (S04E41) generated a single C1.3 x-ray event on 12 May at 1543
UTC.  Two new regions 610 (S02E19) and 611 (S12W14) were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low to low.  There's a chance for isolated C-class x-ray
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
with a period of active levels from 12 May at 0300 through 0600 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active for 13 May.  From 14 through 15 May, the activity should
increase to mostly unsettled with periods of active to minor
storming due to the influence of a high-speed solar wind stream, and
the possible effects of an interplanetary transient.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 099
Predicted   13 May-15 May  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        12 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  010/010-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05