:Product: 20040513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 609 (S03E24) produced
three C-class flares including a C7/Sf at 13/1330Z. This region
underwent rapid growth in the past 36 hours and now exhibits a
moderately complex beta-gamma configuration. CME activity was
observed off the east limb. New Regions 612 (N10E07) and 613
(S08E83) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Region 609 will likely produce C-class activity and
may soon possess potential for M-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active to minor storm period between 13/0600 - 0900Z. Occasional
periods of sustained southward IMF Bz account for the most disturbed
periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 101
Predicted   14 May-16 May  105/110/115
90 Day Mean        13 May 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  010/012-010/015-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05