:Product: 20040514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 609 (S04E10)
produced several low B-class flares during the past 24 hours.  The
region continues to show slight growth in white light area and
sunspot count.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 609 has the potential to produce C-class events
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 110
Predicted   15 May-17 May  112/115/115
90 Day Mean        14 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  017/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  010/015-008/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05