:Product: 20040515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 609 (S03W05)
produced the only C-class event in the last 24 hours.  This region
has almost doubled in white light coverage since yesterday and is
now an area of around 500 millionths.  The daily consensus for this
developing D-type group has it as a magnetic beta-gamma
configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 609 has the potential of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 115
Predicted   16 May-18 May  120/125/120
90 Day Mean        15 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  008/012-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05