:Product: 20040516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 609 (S03W19)
remains the largest active region currently on the disk. Sunspot
growth in the region has slowed and some magnetic simplification may
have occurred since yesterday. New Regions 614 (S05W76), 615
(N17E64), and 616 (N08E71) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are  possible in Region 609.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 118
Predicted   17 May-19 May  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        16 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  008/008-008/008-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05