:Product: 20040517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 614 (S08W89) generated
the largest flare of the past day, a C7/Sf at 17/0417 UTC. Region
609 (S03W31) continued to decay and produced only B-class flares.
New Region 617 (S12E11) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible in Regions 609 and 614.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit
will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about 30 May to 02 June, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere
with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind
plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 May 111
Predicted   18 May-20 May  110/110/105
90 Day Mean        17 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  005/008-005/008-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05