:Product: 20040522RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 618 (S10E41)
produced an M2/Sf at 21/2352 UTC, as well as several C-class events.
The region has continued to grow and has formed a delta
configuration as leader penumbral spots of opposite polarity have
consolidated. Region 615 (N18W13) managed to produce a C1 event at
21/2220 UTC but was otherwise quiet and stable. Region 617 (S10W60)
exhibited some minor surge activity but did not manage to produce
any flares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected be mostly
low, but there is a fair chance for additional, isolated M-class
activity from Region 618.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of an active period from 0600-0900 UTC. Solar wind speeds
continue to be elevated in the 450-500 km/s range.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (23 May), but
should transition to mostly quiet as the high speed solar wind is
expected to decline gradually late on the 23rd through the 24th.
Conditions should be mostly quiet with occasional periods of
unsettled levels for the 2nd and 3rd days (24-25 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 May 102
Predicted   23 May-25 May  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        22 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  010/012-005/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05