:Product: 20040524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels today.  Region 618
(S10E13) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4 x-ray event
that occurred at 24/1104Z.  There was a continued growth in sunspot
area and the total spot count today.  A continued emergence of flux
now shows several delta structures near region center in this
magnetic beta-gamma-delta group. The remaining active regions were
quiescent today.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Due to continued growth in magnetic
complexity, Region 618 has the potential of producing M-class flare
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.  The high
speed solar wind stream continues to persist while solar wind speeds
were exceeding 500 km/s late in the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated
active conditions are possible through 25 May as the geoeffective
high speed coronal hole stream begins to wane.  NOTE: The ACE
spacecraft orbit will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from
about May 30 to June 2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is
expected to interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the
loss of solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 105
Predicted   25 May-27 May  105/105/100
90 Day Mean        24 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  007/010-007/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05