:Product: 20040525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Region 615 (N17W53)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray event that
occurred at 24/2239Z.  Region 618 (S10W00) was limited to B-class
flare production this period while two delta structures remain
evident across the magnetic region center in this beta-gamma-delta
complex.  Little change was noted in sunspot area today.  A 20
degree filament that was seen near the north-center of the disk
became active just before 24/1800Z, and had fully erupted by
24/1930Z.  This disappearing filament resulted in a northward
directed CME as seen on LASCO imagery and appears to have little
geoeffective potential.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 618 remains capable of producing
isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. 
NOTE:  The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring ACE nearly in line with
the Sun from about May 30 to June 2, 2004.  During that time solar
radio noise is expected to interfere with spacecraft telemetry
resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and
particle data.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 102
Predicted   26 May-28 May  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        25 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  007/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05