:Product: 20040529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 618 (S10W60)
produced one C-class flare, a C2.1/Sf at 28/2045 UTC.  This region
has grown in size and is now in a gamma magnetic configuration.  New
Region 621 (S14E62) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Regions 618 and 621 may produce C- class and isolated M- class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Active and isolated minor storm
conditions are possible on days two and three (31 May and 1 June) as
a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream begins to move into
geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M    40/40/25
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 May 101
Predicted   30 May-01 Jun  105/105/100
90 Day Mean        29 May 103
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  012/012-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/15