:Product: 20040530RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 618 (S09W72)
produced a single C1.2 flare at 30/1934 UTC.  Region 618 has
decreased slightly in magnetic complexity and is in a beta-gamma
configuration.  New region 622 (S12E72) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Regions 618 and 621 (S15E51) may produce  C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with active and isolated minor
storm conditions possible for the next three days as a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M    40/30/10
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 May 100
Predicted   31 May-02 Jun  100/100/090
90 Day Mean        30 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  015/015-015/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/10