:Product: 20040531RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 618 (S10W83)
produced 5 C-class flares, including a C6.5/Sf at 31/0028 UTC.  No
significant development was observed from any of the regions on the
visible disk, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 618 may still produce C-class flares before
disappearing tomorrow behind the west limb.  Region 621 (S15E38) is
capable of C-class flares as well.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  Solar wind speed has
slowly increased over the past four days from 350 km/s to about 500
km/s, indicating the possible beginning effects of a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for all three days (1-3 June),
with isolated minor storm conditions on 1 and 2 June from the
effects of the geoeffective coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M    20/10/10
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 May 095
Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun  100/090/090
90 Day Mean        31 May 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  015/015-015/015-012/018
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/10