:Product: 20040601RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Minor B-class activity was
observed in Region 618 (S08W90) as it rotated around the west limb.
Region 621 (S16E25) exhibits some minor magnetic complexity, but
activity was limited to occasional brightness fluctuations and weak
surging. New Regions 623 (N07W23) and 624 (S09E64) were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 621.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active. This
weak disturbance is in response to an elevated solar wind stream
(approximately 550 km/s) from a large transequatorial coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal
hole will prolong this weak disturbance for much of the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jun 090
Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun  090/095/095
90 Day Mean        01 Jun 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  015/015-015/018-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/45/40
Minor storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/10