:Product: 20040602RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Jun 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 621 (S14E12) contains a mildly complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration; however, activity was limited to occasional low B-class flares. A CME was observed to erupt from near the northwest limb late in the period. Preliminary data indicate no Earth directed component. The remaining active regions showed no significant change. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 621. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed remains elevated due to a large transequatorial coronal hole that has rotated into a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. The elevated solar wind speed is expected to subside by 04 June. Expect quiet to unsettled levels by 05 June. III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Jun 090 Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 02 Jun 104 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 015/018-008/015-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/25 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/35/30 Minor storm 20/15/10 Major-severe storm 10/05/05