:Product: 20040603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 621
(S14W01) contains minor magnetic mixing, but produced only small
B-class activity. This period was actually highlighted by a number
of CMEs, predominately off the west limb. The first of these
occurred at around 02/2300Z from behind the northwest limb. An
associated Type II radio sweep was observed with a shock speed of
658 km/s. Bright surging was observed on the west limb at 0830Z,
which preceded another CME observed on LASCO imagery at 0950Z. The
most impressive event of the period was a partial halo CME
associated with a prominence eruption that began at around 03/1620Z.
A Type II radio sweep (717 km/s) accompanied this CME. Much of the
ejecta associated with this CME appeared to originate from behind
the northwest limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Very low levels are expected through 4 June. C-class
activity is possible on 5 and 6 June with the return of old active
regions.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated near 500 km/s, but IMF Bz was predominantly
northward. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a chance
for isolated active periods at high latitudes through 4 June. The
current weak coronal hole high speed stream is expected to subside
by 5 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 090
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  090/095/095
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01