:Product: 20040604RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 621 (S14W15) now
exhibits a simple beta magnetic configuration and is in a decay
phase. The remaining active regions were stable or in decay. Another
in a series of strong CMEs occurred from behind the northwest limb.
This near full halo CME was first visible on LASCO C2 at 04/0750Z. A
Type II radio sweep (700 km/s) was also associated with this CME.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
continues to gradually decrease as a coronal hole rotates out of a
geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 089
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  090/095/095
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  005/008-005/008-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01