:Product: 20040605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 621
(S14W28) became more simplified during the period with a continued
decay in the sunspot area and further weakening of the regions beta
magnetic configuration.  Although Region 625 (S12W82) is now
spotless, it managed to produce a minor B-class flare at 05/0604Z. 
Regions 626 (N05W06) and 627 (S08E30) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 085
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun  085/080/085
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  014/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  005/008-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01