:Product: 20040606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels today.  Region
621 (S14W41) produced several low level B-class flares and underwent
no significant changes today.  Region 627 (S08E17) also produced
several low level B-class flares and this region is currently
classified as a magnetic beta group.  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions may be possible mostly in the high latitudes on the 8th
and 9th of June due to a weak recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 088
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun  085/085/090
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  008/012-008/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/10