:Product: 20040607RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels today.  Region
621 (S14W57) produced the largest flare of the period, a long
duration C2 x-ray event that occurred at 07/0045Z.  A faint,
asymmetrical full halo CME resulted from the event which appears to
have a weak Earthward directed component.  This region has undergone
further decay today in sunspot coverage.  Region 627 (S08E04) grew
in sunspot area and magnetic complexity.  Region 624 (S08W18)
produced a low level B-class flare at 06/2253Z.  Regions 628
(S09E13), 629 (S04E22), and 630 (N13E56) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the period. 
Weak recurrent coronal hole influences and associated elevated wind
speeds are anticipated on 8 and 9 June, especially at higher
latitudes.  A glancing blow from the faint full halo CME that
resulted from the long duration C2 flare is expected to transit the
Earth's geomagnetic field on 10 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jun 089
Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun  090/100/105
90 Day Mean        07 Jun 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  008/012-010/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10