:Product: 20040608RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. 
Region 621 (S14W70) produced the largest flare of the period, a
B8/Sf flare that occurred at 08/1847Z.  White light shows a pair of
umbra spots in an alpha magnetic configuration.  Region 627 (S08W09)
underwent a slight growth in sunspot area during the period with no
flare production noted.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Regions 621 and 627 have the potential to
produce C-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  The anticipated arrival
of a shock resulting from the long duration C2 flare that occurred
on 7 June is expected no later than 10 June.  Active conditions with
a chance of minor storm levels may be observed, especially at higher
latitudes, following the onset of the shock.  11 June will most
likely return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jun 086
Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  085/090/095
90 Day Mean        08 Jun 103
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  010/015-012/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    02/06/02
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05