:Product: 20040609RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  No significant
changes have been noted in current active regions on the sun.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly unsettled levels with an
isolated period of active on 9 June at 1200Z.  The interplanetary
magnetic field has been at slightly negative polarity for extended
periods.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly unsettled for the remainder of 9 June. 
The possible glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection may elevate
the geomagnetic field to active levels with a very slight chance for
isolated minor storming on 10 June, returning to quiet to active
levels for 11 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 085
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun  090/095/095
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 103
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  012/020-012/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05