:Product: 20040612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Two C1 flares occurred, at
12/1841 UTC and 12/1943 UTC, in a new unnumbered region rotating
onto the disk near NE12. Other disk regions were quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
A C-class flare is possible in Region 631 (S10E02) or in the new
Region rotating onto the disk near NE12. Sunspots associated with
the new active region are expected to rotate into view by tomorrow.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 088
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 102
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  014/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  010/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  010/010-010/010-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05