:Product: 20040613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. New Region 634 (N12E73)
produced an M1 flare at 13/1156 UTC as well as smaller B and C-class
flares during the past 24 hours. The region is rotating into view as
a small D-type sunspot group. Another new active region is rotating
onto the disk near southeast 08. Sunspots are not yet visible but
GOES SXI has observed B-class flares from this area. Other disk
regions were quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Another small M-class flare is possible in Region 634.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active under
the influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 095
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  100/105/110
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 102
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  008/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  010/010-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05