:Product: 20040614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Infrequent C-class activity
occurred, from Region 634 (N13E60) and newly numbered Region 635
(S08E70). These two active centers dominate an otherwise dull
visible disk. Region 634 is 350 millionths in white light area. The
limbs were quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
with some chance of an isolated M-class flare from either Region 634
or 635.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Gusts of fast solar wind
reached 550 km/s as a high speed stream began to affect the
magnetosphere midway through the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. Coronal
hole effects are anticipated to linger through 17 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 100
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 102
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05