:Product: 20040615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 634 (N11E48) produced a
C1/1f flare at 15/2001Z. Region 634 is a moderately complex sunspot
group covering 370 millionths of white light area. Region 635
(S10E65) has rotated into view and also exhibits a moderately
complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration with almost 400 millionths
of white light area coverage. These regions were the likely source
for a series of strong CMEs that originated from behind the west
limb during the first week of June. A CME observed off the southwest
limb at approximately 0800Z, originated from behind the west limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class activity is possible from Regions 634
and 635.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Periods of southward IMF Bz associated with weak transient flow
created the most disturbed periods. Solar wind speed gradually
increased during the period associated with a southern coronal hole
rotating into a geoeffective position.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated high-latitude minor storm
periods are possible through 17 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 109
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 102
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  015/015-015/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05