:Product: 20040616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low due to a C2 flare at 0434 UTC on
the east limb near S08. The event was associated with a limb CME
with velocity of about 680 km/s, but did not have an
earthward-directed component. The two dominant regions on the disk
continue to be 634 (N12E33) and 635 (S10E51). Both have respectable
area and are growing slowly but were relatively quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 634 or from Region 635.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with the exception of an
unsettled to active interval from 0600-0900 UTC. Solar wind data
showed a decreasing trend in velocity with values around 450 km/s at
forecast issue time, apparently indicating the end of the high speed
wind stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 112
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 102
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  010/010-010/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05