:Product: 20040617RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There was just one C-class
event during the past 24 hours, a C1/Sf at 0238 UTC from Region 634
(N12E20). Regions 634 and 635 (S11E38) continue to dominate the disk
with their size and are growing slowly, but remain relatively
stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from either Region 634 or Region 635.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with some isolated periods of
unsettled levels. The solar wind velocity remains slightly elevated
(450-550 km/s) but contains only weak magnetic fields (mostly
between -3 nT to +3 nT).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 111
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 102
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  010/010-010/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05