:Product: 20040618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low. There were two C-class
flares during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 2234 UTC from spotless
plage near S08E55 and a C1 at 1626 UTC from Region 635 (S12E25).
Emerging flux was observed in the trailer portion of 635 and this
has led to the formation of a delta spot. Region 634 (N12E07) was
mostly unchanged and was relatively stable during the past 24 hours.
A small, 10 degree filament near S15E09 disappeared, but there was
no evidence for a coronal mass ejection in the SOHO/LASCO imagery.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime during the next three days given the current growth trend
and increased complexity in Region 635.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 108
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  110/110/105
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 102
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  010/012-010/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05