:Product: 20040619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
several C-class events, most of which were from Region 635 (S12E12).
The largest of these was a C3/Sf at 1937 UTC. Region 635 continues
to have a delta configuration in the trailer part of the group and
this was the location of most of the activity in the region. Region
634 (N12W05) managed to produce a C-class flare and appears to have
also developed a small delta configuration in the leader spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 635 and perhaps also from Region 634.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (20-22
June).
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 113
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  115/110/110
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 102
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05