:Product: 20040622RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. 
Region 635 (S12W27) continued on a decaying trend today while
maintaining a delta structure in the trailing spot cluster. 
Multiple B-class flares were produced from this region throughout
the period.  Region 634 (N12W44) underwent significant decay in
sunspot area during the period although it continues to retain a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 635 remains capable of producing an
isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jun 117
Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun  115/110/110
90 Day Mean        22 Jun 102
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  003/007-004/010-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05