:Product: 20040624RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 635 (S11W53)
produced two C-class flares, a C1.4/Sf at 24/0559 UTC and a C1.7/Sf
at 24/0621 UTC.  Region 635 maintained a beta-gamma-delta
configuration while growing slightly in size.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 635 is expected to produce C-class flares, and isolated
M-class flares are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for all three days (25-27 June),
with periods of isolated active and minor storm conditions on day
three (27 June) as Earth comes under the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    45/45/40
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 108
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun  100/095/095
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 101
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  003/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  004/012-005/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10