:Product: 20040625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 635 (S11W67)
produced a C2.5 flare at 25/1132 UTC.  The region maintained a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration while exhibiting gradual
decay.  Region 634 (N12W88) continues to decay as well.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 635 may produce C-class and isolated M-class flares until it
passes behind the west limb on 27 June.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.  A minor transient in the solar
wind was observed at ACE at approximately 1200 UTC, although with no
notable effect to the geomagnetic field.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with possible active conditions
on days two and three (27-28 June) as a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    40/35/10
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 103
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun  095/095/090
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 101
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  003/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  005/010-008/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/10