:Product: 20040626RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Jun 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 635 (S11W80) produced a C1.3 flare at 26/0424 UTC and a C8.6 flare at 26/0718 UTC. The region conitnues a steady decay in size and magnetic complexity. New Region 638 (N07E22) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on 27 June, and decrease to very low levels on 28 June as Region 635 passes behind the west limb. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed has increased to 400 km/s, indicating possible effects of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with periods of active conditions possible for the next three days as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position. III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun Class M 35/15/05 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jun 099 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 101 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 008/015-010/015-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/40 Minor storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/10