:Product: 20040627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Several C-class flares
occurred during the period.  Region 637 (N08W16) produced a C1.0/Sf
at 27/0358 UTC.  Region 635 (S10W90) produced a C2.3 at 27/1557 UTC.
New Region 639 (N11E73) produced a C1.6 flare at 27/1931 UTC.  Two
new regions were numbered today: Region 639 (N11E73) and Region 640
(S09E68).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Regions 635, 637, and 639 may produce C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  Solar wind speed
observed at ACE remains below 400 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with active conditions possible 
28-29 June from the effects of high speed solar wind from a
geoeffective coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    15/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 097
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 101
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  010/012-012/012-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05