:Product: 20040628RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 635 (S10, L=052)
produced several low C-class flares as it rotated around the west
limb. A CME, visible on the west limb at 28/0124Z, was likely
associated with one of several flares from this region. The
remaining active regions showed no significant changes.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. An isolated C-class flare is possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
levels. Occasional periods of southward Bz resulted in the active
conditions. Solar wind measurements indicated a transition into a
weak coronal hole high speed stream late in the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods. A weak high speed stream is expected to produce
minor disturbed periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jun 089
Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        28 Jun 100
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  010/012-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05