:Product: 20040629RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Several B-class flares
occurred in Region 639 (N13E46). Some minor magnetic mixing is
evident in this growing region. No significant changes were observed
in the remaining active regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a small chance for a C-class flare from
Region 639.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. The disturbed periods
are due to a coronal hole high speed stream that began yesterday and
peaked at near 600 km/s midway through the period. The IMF Bz
component was mostly northward, but switched southward towards the
end of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with occasional active
periods. The current weak disturbance is expected to subside by 1
July.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jun 085
Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        29 Jun 100
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  012/020-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01