:Product: 20040630RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jun 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare occurred
in Region 640 (S07E41) at 30/1439Z. Region 640 is a small simple
beta group in decay. Occasional B-class flares occurred in Region
639 (N13E46). This region also exhibited some decay this period. A
long duration B-class x-ray enhancement was associated with plage
brightenings near an active dark filament at S06W06.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. An isolated C-class flare is possible from Regions 639
and 640.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. A coronal hole high speed stream that began on 28 June is
responsible for this weak disturbance. Solar wind speed ranged from
520 to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jun 082
Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul  080/080/085
90 Day Mean        30 Jun 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  012/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01