:Product: 20040701RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Just two small decaying
sunspot groups populate the visible disk. No significant activity
was observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with occasional active
periods.  This weak disturbance is due to a high speed coronal hole
stream.  The solar wind speed remains elevated at over 500 km/s, but
is in decline. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 02 - 03 July as the high speed coronal hole stream
subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 081
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul  080/085/085
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 099
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  010/012-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01