:Product: 20040704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 641
(N14E54) produced a B4 x-ray flare at 04/1520 UTC. This region is
spotless plage which rotated onto the disk on 02 July. Other disk
regions were relatively stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 079
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  080/080/085
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  005/008-008/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05