:Product: 20040705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 639 (N08W35)
produced a number of small flares, the largest a B2/Sf at 05/1554
UTC. All regions currently on the disk are small and in an apparent
state of decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 078
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  076/078/080
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  005/012-005/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05