:Product: 20040706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  A full halo CME was
observed from the SOHO/LASCO imagery late on 05 July which appears
to be a backside event.  There was also a Type II radio sweep with a
shock speed of 424 km/s that may be associated with this CME.  The
event could likely be from old Region 635 (L=052).  This region was
a moderately complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration when it
rotated off the solar disk on 28 June.  A long duration B1 flare was
observed at 06/1320 UTC which was associated with a CME off the west
limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 079
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul  080/080/085
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  005/010-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05