:Product: 20040707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Low level B-class
flares were observed during the last 24 hours.  The largest event
was a B4/Sf at 07/1719 UTC from Region 641 (N15E12), which is now a
spotless region.  The event was reported in H-alpha imagery as a
parallel ribbon flare with a small disappearing filament along the
regions inversion line.  Several CME's were observed from the
SOHO/LASCO imagery during the period, none of which seem to be Earth
directed.  A full halo CME was first observed in C2 at 06/2006 UTC. 
All indications are that this was a backside event. This is the
second backside full halo event reported in the past 48 hours.  A
new region was numbered today as Region 642 (S08E63).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 079
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul  080/085/090
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  005/010-005/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05