:Product: 20040709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 642 (S07E39) has
grown slightly in both sunspot count and white light coverage.  It
was responsible for the only low level B-class flare in the past 24
hours.  Continued CME activity were observed  from the SOHO/LASCO
imagery.  These appear to be backside events and not directed toward
Earth.  A new region was numbered today as Region 643 (S08W07).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  There is a slight chance for Region 642 to produce a C-class
event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 087
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  090/100/110
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  001/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  005/008-008/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05