:Product: 20040710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. New Region 644 (N11E69)
rotated into view as a single H-type sunspot. Region 645 (N12W11)
emerged on the disk. Another new region, not yet numbered, is
rotating onto the disk near southeast 13. This region is fairly
bright in X-rays and appears to have raised the background x-ray
flux from B1 to about B4.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
The chance of a small M-class flare is expected to increase as the
new east limb regions fully rotate onto the disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    05/10/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 093
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul  100/110/115
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  005/008-008/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05