:Product: 20040711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred
from the east limb near SE12. This is in the vicinity of old Region
635 (S11, L=055). Sunspots have not yet rotated into view. New
Regions 646 (N13W33) and 647 (S14E61) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with the possibility of an M-class flare from the new region
rotating around the east limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE solar wind data
suggests the minor influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    10/15/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 104
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul  110/115/120
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  010/010-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05