:Product: 20040712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred
at 12/0808 UTC from the east limb near SE08. New Region 649 (S10E76)
rotated into view near the site of the M-flare as a small C-type
sunspot group. More sunspots are likely to rotate into view within
the next 24 hours. New Region 648 (N14W08) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Additional C-class flares are expected and another
M-class flare is possible. The source of this activity is expected
to be the active region area at the southeast limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The high-speed
stream conditions that were apparent in the ACE solar wind data
yesterday appear to be easing.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    20/30/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 125
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul  130/135/140
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  010/012-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05