:Product: 20040714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 646 (N12W72) produced
an impulsive M6/1n flare at 0523 UTC. The event was accompanied by
weak radio bursts, and there was no associated CME visible in the
LASCO coronagraph data. The group appears to be decaying and was
less active today than it was yesterday. Region 649 (S10E53)
continues to be the largest group on the disk and managed to produce
one M-flare, an M1/Sf at 1816 UTC. The size of the group is about
the same as yesterday, but the region does appear to have a small
magnetic delta configuration in the dominant trailer spots, and this
appears to be the primary location for occasional flare activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, with regions 646 and 649 the most likely sources. There
continues to be a slight chance for an additional, major flare event
from Region 646.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed showed
a steady decline during the past 24 hours with values around 450
km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (15 July).
Generally unsettled with some active periods at high latitudes is
expected for the 2nd day (16 July). A return to predominantly
unsettled is expected for the 3rd day (17 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 138
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  140/140/135
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  010/012-012/020-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05