:Product: 20040718RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at high levels today.  Region
649 (S10E00) produced five M-class events, all of which occurred in
a constricted area around the delta structure in the trailing
portion of the spot group.  The M-class flares chronologically
occurred with an M2/1f at 17/2131Z, an M1 x-ray at 17/2308Z, an
M2/1f at 18/0035Z, an M1/Sf at 18/0257Z, and an M1/1f at 18/1713Z. 
Weak radio bursts accompanied many of today's events while LASCO
imagery depicted only faint CME signatures in association with the
flare activity observed during the period.  Magnetically, Region 649
remains a beta-gamma-delta spot group.  Region 652 (N05E58) has
fully rotated into view today and is currently measured in white
light at over 1300 millionths of spot area coverage.  Several
C-class flares were observed during the period and a strong delta
structure is evident in the intermediate cluster of spots.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.  Region 649 and 652 are both capable of
producing major flare level activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels throughout the
period.  Isolated active to minor storm conditions are possible on
19 and 20 July mostly at higher latitudes due to the potential for
transient passages from the major flare activity seen from Region
649 during the past several days.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jul 155
Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul  150/150/145
90 Day Mean        18 Jul 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  013/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  010/015-010/015-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05